Atalanta Is Still Not Prepared to Challenge for a Scudetto

Playing the Devil's Advocate

Yesterday Ashley laid out an argument as to why Atalanta is prepared to challenge for its elusive first Scudetto. I fully support his premise. In fact, I think Atalanta has as good a chance as they have ever had to fight for Italy’s top prize. So for the sake of the back and forth, let’s take the other side of the coin and outline what is still lacking in the Bergamo camp that would make a Scudetto improbable - and perhaps more importantly what could be done to erase those deficiencies in the ranks.

The most important thing to remember while reading through my rebuttal is the extreme rubric to measure Atalanta against. This isn’t beating out 16 teams to finish top 4, it is beating out everyone to stand alone at the top of the mountain. Mistakes are minimal, and it requires a level of consistency we have yet seen from Gasperini’s side over 38 match days.

Last season Inter stormed away with the Scudetto with virtually no competition from the other 19 teams in the division. Inter’s 94 points to Atalanta’s 69 feels like an insurmountable hole to overcome. For the sake of argument, for Atalanta to claim another 25 points last season we merely would have had to claw back dropped points from losses to Frosinone, Bologna (x2), Cagliari, Torino, Napoli, Fiorentina (x2), and Lazio. Basically the only wiggle room we would’ve gotten is losses against Inter.

The marathon is real, and there’s virtually no room to screw up. The last four seasons, Scudetto winners lost totals of three, four, four, and two matches, while also balancing serious European commitments. Sadly Atalanta has never demonstrated the type of consistency to be “on” all season. Not to say it cannot happen, but it will take prime Papu Gomez, Josip Ilicic levels of Atalanta offense to make it a possibility. Atalanta only lost six matches in the oddball COVID season, but have lost double digit matches in each season after that. Even swinging five losses (to get from last year’s 11 down to 5) into victories is only 15 extra points. Maybe 84 points gets Atalanta a Scudetto in the right circumstances, but….

Inter Is Too Good

Can Inter really be stopped? Even in a summer that saw them force ownership changes, probably for the best for Inter, it hardly stopped them from fortifying the most complete squad in the league. Piotr Zielinski and Mehdi Taremi join a ruthless attack that last year had no problem putting away 89 league goals. Even with Atalanta putting on a near flawless season, it may not be possible to stop Simone Inzaghi and his devil magic.

Inter is already at -150 odds to win the league this year (Atalanta at a respectable +2000). The bookies giving the Nerazzurri better than a 50% chance to win the league, shows how dominant they are. Serie A is deep, but deep with a lot of very good teams, and one elite team. It may take something catastrophic to slow Inter down this season.

Work On What You Can Control

But honestly there’s no real use in worrying about what your opponents do, its better to try and change only what is under your control. So what are Atalanta’s biggest areas for improvement?

Minnows With a Bite

Serie A is improving, there aren’t three or four tomato cans that you can beat up every year, guaranteeing you at least 18 freebie points. Salernitana was the only lackluster squad in the division last season (honestly Atalanta still had their problems with them), but even relegated Sassuolo and Frosinone fought tooth and nail with every other squad in the league. Atalanta’s Achilles heal has always been, and may always been figuring out how to solve the type of match against the opponent they’re heavily favored against. Sometimes they make it look easy- like drilling Frosinone 5-0, but they can equally make it agonizing- like losing to that same Frosinone in the second match week.

Atalanta dropped 10 points last season to the likes of Frosinone, Udinese, Cagliari, and Hellas Verona. Honestly, its not as many points as I would have expected when I started running through the numbers - but still - 10 points is 10 points when you’re putting together a road map for the Scudetto. I feel the rule of thumb is you get one mulligan against the bottom three teams in the league. Anything beyond that, you’re stuck figuring out how to take back points from the direct rivals you’re happy sniping a draw on the road.

The Cleansheet Hole

Last season Atalanta was shut out in five matches. Not bad, in reality - but still too many considering Inter only succumbed to the cleansheet twice. Five matches in which Atalanta doesn’t give themselves an opportunity to earn three points is too much. And given La Dea’s propensity for sometimes being a bit leaky at the back, it makes it even more challenging to salvage a nil-nil draw from those matches win which the offense shuts off.

Squad Depth

Gian Piero Gasperini has been vocal in the past about maintaining a smaller squad. I get it, as you only rely on player’s you’re truly confident to fit in your system. But I imagine Gasperini even has to admit he’s pushing it when he has to rely on Marten de Roon to fill in at centerback at least five times per season.

Squad depth will be put even more to the test this season with two extra Champion’s League matches and a Super Coppa work vacation in Saudi Arabia. Offensively, Atalanta should be able to handle it, but is the defense and midfield prepared to take on all the extra kilometers?

A Quick Defensive Inventory

At centerback Atalanta can roll with: Said Kolasinac, Berat Djimsiti, Giorgio Scalvini (injury dependent), Ben Godfrey (injury dependent), Rafael Toloi, and Isak Hien. In normal circumstances six centerbacks should be more than enough. However, Godfrey injury seriousness is unknown, and Toloi has been unreliable health-wise for the last few seasons. Provided everyone stay healthy (big if) depth becomes less of an issue than actual performance.

Midfield Inventory

Where it gets a little more hairy is in the middle of the pitch. Mario Pasalic stepped up bigtime to act as a stand-in double pivot partner, supplanting de Roon and Ederson in a pinch. Ibrahim Sulemana, and hopefully Matt O’Riley will provide extra support Gasperini hasn’t really had since the days of the iron de Roon and Freuler combo.

Nonetheless, we thought depth was available in the form of Michel Adopo last season, and it may not be entirely prudent to immediately rely on new guys to contribute. Fortunately Swiss-army knife Pasalic helps immensely, but center-mid depth will always be concerning.

The Squad’s Biggest Weakness

Davide Zappacosta put in one of the most heroic wingback runs last Europa League. The Italian was a man possessed, and he made up for his up and down performances we had been accustomed to the last few seasons. Wingback, however, continues to be Gasperini’s biggest weakness on the pitch, and one of the most difficult areas for him to improve since the hey-day of Hans Hateboer, Robin Gosens, and Timothy Castagne rocking it.

Hateboer is a shell of his former self, while Zappacosta may go back to his Jekyll and Hyde nature at any moment. Fortunately Matteo Ruggeri has helped to fortify the left side of the pitch, but Atalanta is truly at its best when there are three reliable wingbacks that Gasperini can rotate in and out on a whim.

Emil Holm is gone, so is Nadir Zortea. Is it really Gasperini’s plan to roll with Zappacosta, Ruggeri, and Hateboer (and technically Brandon Soppy)? Atalanta has yet to hit big on an external wingback signing since Gosens and Castagne. I feel they need one more strong option to consider the wingbacks to not be a liability. Lutsharel Geertruida could certainly help in this area!

The Takeaway

The biggest challenge in writing this article is to remind myself that I am picking nits with everything. Having the wingbacks be the biggest liability on the squad is not the end of the world. Only succumbing to five clean-sheets, and dropping minimal points to the shakier teams in the division is a good return. These are all strong reasons why Atalanta got back into Champion’s League football independent of the Europa League victory.

Still, we’re taking a different exam in this study. Winning the league is different than finishing top four, and the margin for error is razor thin - especially when Inter have demonstrated they literally do not make mistakes. Does Atalanta have another level where they can play virtually mistake free football for 38 matches? Maybe, perhaps, I hope! Odds would say no, but this is a new Atalanta. An Atalanta that is swimming in new waters after hoisting the Europa League trophy. A team that may finally be prepared for a new challenge and ownership ready to shell out transfer dollars to players that may have been out of reach in previous season for Atalanta. Nothing is impossible, just look at the Europa League, and I for one hope the squad is ready to take the jump where it is ready to make its own luck to contend at the peak of the league. Let’s hope Gasperini bought his mountaineering gear this season, cause we’ll need it to dethrone Inter! Keep the faith everyone; and as always, Forza Dea!